Here's my theory on what happened the first of this year. The military generals were asked by President Bush, VP Cheney and Karl Rove what they felt they needed to resolve the Iraq quagmire.
The Generals said, "sir, we need to curb the violence long enough to allow the Iraqi government a chance to reconcile their differences. Without a government in charge and with power, this war will go on forever. There needs to be a political solution, not a military one."
The President then asked the generals, "how many more soldiers do you need to do that?" "It will take at least 30,000", they said. "How long would it take to get the surge of troops to Iraq?" "About 6 months sir; if we start deploying in April, we should be in full swing by September of 2007."
The President then asked, "how long will it take to get things calmed down enough to see a big drop in the violence?" The generals said, "we should be able to get things under control within a year, possibly a year and a half sir, from the time the complete surge of troops arrive."
The President said, "thank you generals, I'll get back to you."
Sitting around the President's desk are VP Cheney, Karl Rove, Condi Rice and Secretary Gates. The President says, "ok, what needs to be done to help the GOP stay in charge of the White House and get control of Congress again?"
They all agree the best way to do that would be American's seeing some measure of success in Iraq.
"When would be the best time for that success to be seen by American's", the President asks? "Some time beginning in September of 2008 sir. Most voters start paying attention to the political environment around that time. The debates are watched and talk shows are turned on. Campaign ads are abundant."
The President says, "thank you all for coming and for your input. Karl, could you hang around a bit, we need to talk?" "Yes sir", Karl says.
After everyone is gone leaving the President and Karl Rove in the office, the President says, "ok Karl - what's the plan?"
Karl says, "George, we need to follow the general's plan. Start the deployment of the of troops in April, meanwhile have our political pundits push September 2007 as a military `report day', giving our colleagues something to use against the Democrats. They can insist on waiting to hear what the generals say in September on how the surge is working."
"We know from what the Generals say, it will take a full year from the time all 30,000 extra troops are deployed to Iraq for things to really improve. The generals will most likely say in September of 07," "give us more time, there has been a slight drop in violence already. Let us continue the fight through the summer of 08. We'll have those troops back home by then."
"We'll make sure the General promises to have the surge of troops out of Iraq by early September of 08."
"Meanwhile, we both know the Democrats will be pushing for a withdraw date in Congress. We'll be getting them on `record' as pushing for a withdraw date this year."
"Come September of 2008, our GOP candidates can begin bragging and advertising about the 50-70% drop in violence in Iraq", "the surge worked", they'll say. "The GOP and the Bush administration had the right strategy from the start - the Democrats wanted to pull out a year ago. Imagine where the Iraqi people would be today if we had done that?"
"George, even if violence begins picking up soon after removing the 30,000 troops, there won't be enough time, before Election Day, for any significant reporting to be done about it. Americans won't know the truth. They'll be thinking instead", "I should vote Republican - they will keep me and my family safe and make the world safer."
The President said to Karl, "DO IT!"
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